Fact #1: The nuclear powers have no intention of disarmingin the foreseeable future.
Nuclear deterrence remains a central strategy of defense policy. Determination to retain nuclear arsenals, including the capacity to develop and manufacture new weapons, is strengthening under the expanding threat of nuclear proliferation. An additional incentive is the perception that nuclear defenses are a less-costly alternative to increased conventional forces. Further, many believe the nuclear arsenals preserved peace between the superpowers during the Cold War and will continue an important contribution to future peace. Nuclear arsenal reductions under START treaties can be viewed as shedding excess capacity and will not significantly affect deterrence capabilities. A Comprehensive Test Ban treaty will not prevent the nuclear powers from developing warhead improvements.
Fact #2: The nuclear powers cannot be forced to disarm.
The nuclear powers are committed to eventual nuclear weapons abolition but will not agree to a disarmament timetable. The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is, itself, in jeopardy due to this disagreement. There are no international means to enforce global nuclear disarmament. The World Court can rule the possession of nuclear weapons to be illegal under international law but there are no practical provisions for enforcement.
Fact #3: The nuclear powers are not being persuaded to disarm.
Nuclear disarmament is not a key public issue and it is not a subject of noticeable debate. Current issues and concerns, as measured by most opinion surveys, do not include nuclear weapons. The end of the Cold War also marked the end of nuclear war as a top public concern. The feeble campaign by grassroots groups to achieve a nuclear abolition treaty by the year 2000 offers little hope for success.
Fact #4: The nuclear weapons threat continues to grow.
The previously-overstated threat of nuclear proliferation is now expanding at an uncontrolled rate. Current concerns include the breakdown of the nuclear weapons infrastructure of the former Soviet Union and the advent of increased violence by terrorist groups. The nonproliferation regime cannot promise protection from nuclear catastrophes and neither can proposed missile defenses which can be circumvented by technical and other means.
Assertion: If nuclear disarmament efforts are to succeed in the foreseeable future, it will be because reality has been altered by openly facing the facts.
D. C. Whitmore
Rev. February 19, 1996